Today’s Hot Asset: EUR/USD
Yesterday’s trading saw the EUR/USD pair drop to 1.2460, following mixed U.S. data, received along the day, the pair had a slight recovery up to 1.2490. During today’s Asian session a surprising increase was seen, prior to the European Central Bank’s press conference on upcoming interest rate. A shared belief amongst analysts is that no major changes will be introduced by Mario Draghi. He is however expected to be dovish which should send the single currency down. The unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan to increase monetary stimulus took analysts by surprise, with only 2 out of 36 being right, and so we must remember that speculation is not always right.
At 12.45 (GMT) interest rate changes will be released. The movement is slightly bearish. Support is found at 1.2440 and resistance is at 1.2540.1
Trend: Slightly Down
A sharp drop was seen on Wednesday as the pair reached 1.5870. The stronger U.S dollar and disappointing U.K Service PMI data, the lowest in value since June 2013, were the main cause for the decline. Britain, whose economic uncertainty was underlined by the new data release, is a growing candidate to be the first G-7 country to increase interest rates. The productivity gap between Britain and other G-7 members is currently at its widest point since 1992.
The U.K. Assets Purchase Facility and Official bank rate data will be out today at 12.00PM (GMT), followed by the MPC Rate statement. At 3.00PM (GMT). Volatility on the market should increase at 3.00PM (GMT) as the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate will be announced.
In mind – The U.S. Non-farm payrolls will be released tomorrow! The trend is sideways. Support is found at 1.5870 and resistance at 1.6020.
Gold broke through a key support level at $1,150/ounce and fell to $1,138/ounce yesterday. During the past 6 trading days the price has decreased by almost $1,000/ounce. The drastic decline has analysts questioning how much further the price will go down; it is now widely believed that the metal could test the $1,000/ounce mark. Nevertheless, always remember that geopolitical tension could change this.
Speculation should begin today over tomorrow’s Non-farm payrolls data. At 1.30PM (GMT) we will see the release of Unemployment claims and prelim non-farm productivity. The movement is sideways. Support is found at 1,135 and resistance at 1,152.
Crude Oil WTI
WTI Crude Oil finally stopped tumbling and recovered to $79.20/barrel. The U.S. Crude Oil inventories presented lower supply than expected (500K barrels instead of 1.8M), which can account for the increase. Very high volatility is expected today as OPEC holds its annual press conference at 1.30PM (GMT). Signs of higher supplies or lower demand could again negatively influence the price and send it bellow $75/barrel.
The trend is sideways. Support is found at 75.00 and resistance at 79.50
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